Food Security in a Changing World

ISSUE NO. 4 September 1999
“Despite massive increases in world food production, food insecurity persists.”

What is Food Security?

“Food Security” is easily discussed in general terms, but it embodies a complex set of intertwined concerns and issues. The concept continues to evolve, with almost 200 definitions proposed since 1975. A universally accepted definition remains elusive, but most contemporary conceptions present food security as people having access to sufficient stocks and supplies of food to provide a nutritionally adequate diet.

Accurate and timely measures of food insecurity are difficult to obtain. Malnutrition and hunger are often employed as surrogate measures, but actually represent the most advanced and chronic forms of food insecurity. Food insecurity occurs long before malnutrition and hunger set in; therefore using these indicators greatly underestimates the number of individuals suffering food insecurity.

One indicator regularly used to establish a standard or threshold for separating undernourished persons from others is minimum recommended dietary allowances (RDAs). Nutritionists continue to debate what the minimum value ought to be and whether the complex relationship between diet and human development is represented adequately by a single indicator such as caloric intake. Methods for estimating RDAs, as well as designation of minimum thresholds, vary amongst agencies and countries, and sometimes result in diverging estimates of food insecurity.

Malnutrition estimates derived from macro-scale national studies provide little insight into the distribution of hunger within a region or country. For example, national average per capita caloric intake in Sri Lanka and India are similar – both are above 2000 cal/day – but a smaller portion of Sri Lankans suffer from hunger. Elsewhere, a recent FAO report estimates that even in countries with a food supply in the 2700 cal/day range, which is well above recognized minimum RDAs, at least 10% of the population is undernourished.

Data availability and quality also impede the establishment of reliable and precise measures of food insecurity. Inadequate public infrastructure makes obtaining basic data on population growth and agricultural production problematic. In other cases, officially released statistics on food production, population, human health and environmental quality are as much a political as a scientific statement. Even though precise statements on the extent of food security in a particular location and at a particular time remain elusive, it is possible to infer general trends in food security from the available information on malnutrition and hunger.

Is Food Insecurity a Major Concern?

Despite massive increases in world food production, food insecurity persists. An equitable distribution of the world’s food supply would provide each person with a more than adequate 2700 cal/day, but the world’s food supply is not distributed evenly between or within countries. More than 800 million persons in developing countries, representing about 20% of the population in the developing world, are presently food insecure (Table 1). China and India are home to about 45% the world’s food insecure population.

Deteriorating conditions in Africa separate it from other major regions. Of the 42 countries in the world that cannot assure a minimum of 2200 cal/day/person, 29 are in Africa (Figure 1). Over 40% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is chronically food insecure. If individuals suffering from periodic or seasonal food deficits were included in these estimates, the number of food insecure persons would be considerably larger.

Figure 1. Chronic Malnutrition in Developing Countries: 1994-96

In developed countries there is less concern about food security, but it is erroneous to think of these countries as totally food secure. In both the USA and Canada, community food security coalitions, with the overall aim of alleviating urban hunger, have become part of the landscape.

Increases in food supply have outpaced population growth in most regions and, in general terms, per capita food availability has increased significantly. On a global scale, average cal/person/day increased from 2430 in 1970 to 2700 in 1990, and food insecure persons decreased from 917 million to 839 million (Table 1). Additional increases in food availability are forecasted through to 2010, but estimates for the 1990-2010 period do not match the improvements achieved between 1970 and 1990. Food availability is expected to increase to an unprecedented average of 2860 cal/person/day and it is estimated that the food insecure population will be reduced to less than 700 million persons. Despite these improvements, it is clear that food security remains a global concern.

Much of the recent improvement occurred in developing countries where food supplies have increased by about 16% between 1970 and 1990, with another 10% increase projected for 1990-2010. The most notable gains were in East Asia. Increases in food supply remained ahead of population growth in South Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East-North Africa, but not to the same extent as in East Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, population growth continues to outpace increases in food supplies, and it does not appear that food availability will increase significantly in this region before 2010. The number of food insecure individuals in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to swell to more than 260 million by 2010, more than double 1970 levels.

Root Causes of Food Insecurity

Food Supply, Food Consumption & Population Trends

Recent declines in malnourishment have been driven largely by increases in food production. Grain production has outpaced population increases throughout most of the 1900s. Global per capita grain production increased by an astonishing 38% between 1950 and the mid-1980s, peaking at 342 kg/person in 1984. These aggregate data mask food distribution issues, but grain production increases correspond to a decline in the number of undernourished persons in many food insecure locations. Per capita grain production decreased by 7% between 1984 and 1998, suggesting it will be increasingly difficult to alleviate food insecurity in the future.

Although world population growth rates have been declining for three decades, it is forecasted that the global population will approach 7 billion by 2010, with 53% of all persons living in urban centres. Urban poverty is rising and in some cases the urban poor are spending 80% of their available income meeting food needs and preferences. Food security is expected to become more severe over the short to medium term.

Increases in global food consumption have also been fuelled by recent dietary changes. Consumption of livestock products has increased significantly in developing and developed countries. This trend is expected to continue, and will likely be more pronounced in East Asia, especially in China, and less so in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Future shifts in consumption patterns will have profound impacts on food insecurity. Use of cereals for livestock feed in developing countries may double by 2010, diverting additional crop production towards livestock sectors, and reinforcing the persistence of undernutrition and hunger amongst the poor who are less able to purchase higher-priced livestock products.

Poverty & Economic Growth

Issues of poverty and economic growth are somewhat analogous to hunger amidst plenty of food. Conventional measures of economic performance indicate economic growth continues in most developing and developed countries. Since the early 1950s, total global economic activity has increased five-fold, but economic benefits have not been shared equally by all regions. Economic inequalities, among and within countries, have increased dramatically in a world that has become wealthier. Furthermore, many food insecure persons are not part of the wage economy and therefore are not included in standard measures of economic performance (e.g., per capita wages, GNP). Other factors, such as the widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, and volatile economic conditions that are often associated with rapidly developing economies, have made it increasingly difficult for the poor to meet their food needs; these factors will likely continue to be major contributors to food insecurity.

Resource Depletion & Degradation

World agriculture reached a significant threshold in the 1980s: the expansion of the agricultural land base is effectively no longer a viable option for increasing global food production. Potential agricultural land is either remote to markets or environmentally marginal, and food security in the future will undoubtedly rely on a more intensive use of existing agricultural lands. At the same time, the space required by a growing population that is increasingly urban-based, will result in further conversion of land from agricultural to urban uses, resulting in additional stress on a diminishing agricultural land resource base. The area seeded to grains is expected to shrink from the current 0.12 ha/person to 0.07 ha/person by 2050, casting doubts upon the possibility of fully offsetting aggregate increases in food demands. Land degradation, especially accelerated rates of soil erosion and desertification, decreases crop productivity on 1.2 billion ha of agricultural land today. Increasing agricultural land use intensity without further impairment to soil productivity remains a significant food security challenge.

Water has replaced land as a scarce natural resource constraining agricultural production in many regions of the world. Since 1950, the area of irrigated land nearly tripled; peaking at about 260 million ha. Irrigation brought arid lands into agricultural production and made fertilizer use more effective. About 40% of the world’s food is from irrigated land and approximately two-thirds of the world’s irrigated land is in Asia. Irrigated land produces about 50% of India’s grain crops and about 70% of China’s.

But the depletion and degradation of water sources, population increases, and competition from other activities all threaten the use of water for agriculture. Recent surveys indicate that the scarcity of water available for agriculture has become a problem in all regions. The water table under the northern China Plain is dropping an average of 1.5 metres per annum. In parts of India, water withdrawal rates are often twice recharge rates, and water tables are falling by as much as 3 metres per year. Further constraints on water resources could reduce India’s grain harvest by as much as 25%. Future economic development will increase competition for water resources (Table 2). Non-agricultural sectors are regularly prepared to pay higher prices for water and the price of water will likely rise. From a food security perspective, this suggests potential increases in food prices and a decline in food security amongst urban poor, who will have to spend an even larger share of their income on food.

Globalization of Agricultural Markets

Only petroleum products are exchanged more frequently than agricultural commodities in the international market place. International agricultural trade however represents only a small share of total agricultural production. About 20% of the world’s grain harvest moves through the international market place each year, and international trading of other food staples such as potatoes is negligible. These generalizations mask the few exceptions such as Japan and Egypt that rely heavily upon food imports to meet food needs. Nevertheless, it is now recognized that there are strong links between food security and international trade, even though the overall impact of trade on food security continues to be contested. Some analysts believe that freer trading of agricultural commodities will alleviate food insecurity by stimulating production of those commodities for which a country has a comparative advantage. Resulting increases in foreign exchange will allow the country to purchase other commodities in the market place, thereby reducing the risk of hunger. There is considerable criticism of this perspective, as the economic benefits of enhanced trade rarely trickle down to those people who are most food insecure and unrestricted agricultural trade entrenches food insecurity amongst the most vulnerable. International trade is first and foremost a business, and is not required to respond to issues of hunger or malnutrition. As individuals and countries acquire more wealth, agricultural trade levels increase. However, food imports are often expensive, and since food insecurity and poverty are inextricably linked, people who are food insecure often cannot afford to purchase imports. Furthermore, where the international market place has promoted the replacement of traditional food crops with export commodities, the supply of lower-cost domestic food sources has declined, and food insecurity has become more severe.

A Framework for Food Security Research

Food security cannot be viewed in simple, unidimensional terms, and any attempts to resolve food insecurity with narrowly defined actions will ultimately fall short of intended goals. The challenge then is to capture the diversity and complexity of food security, recognizing that there are many legitimate perspectives that must be addressed simultaneously.

One approach to organizing food security research is to use a framework consisting of food security dimensions and spatial scales (Table 3). All food security research or programs to alleviate food insecurity need not consider all these dimensions, but the spectrum of concerns need to be addressed in a coherent and co-ordinated manner.

The macro-scale Food Supply dimension focuses on the extent to which future food production might keep pace with rapid global population growth, mechanisms to enhance national food self-sufficiency, and ensuring a reliable supply of basic food products. Concerns include: stabilizing agricultural production, meeting minimum regional requirements for food, and the avoidance of periodic food shortages and rapid fluctuations in food prices. At the global scale, the rate at which food production has been increasing has begun to slow, suggesting that future food needs cannot be met with existing agricultural technologies. The private sector’s development and use of biotechnology to expand food production may assist agricultural production to continue to expand more rapidly than population. However, there is a concern that these advanced technologies will be beyond the economic grasp of the majority of farmers in the developing world and will promote further concentration of agricultural production among fewer controlling interests in developed nations.

Hunger amidst an abundance of food impels the Food Entitlement dimension. Food entitlement expands food security beyond supply-related issues and is concerned with access to and the disposition of food. It recognizes the acquisition of food goes beyond the availability of food and depends upon economic access to food, political processes and cultural preferences. Expanding agricultural production will alleviate food insecurity only if the poor and other disadvantaged groups within a region have improved access to food supplies. In this context, food security is concerned with overcoming deeply-rooted economic, social and political forces which control the distribution of food products at all spatial scales.

The Food and Human Security dimension recognizes that many of the impediments to food security are tied to fundamental human needs and rights. Opportunities for employment, freedom from oppression and violence, access to adequate health care and education and the capacity to cope with or adapt to change are prerequisites to communities and households achieving food security.

Actions to Advance Food Security

Food security is a complex issue. It embraces a series of related concerns and it should not be framed in the context of a single perspective and scale. A few suggestions to promote and enhance food security follow.

Food security must be tied to human security: The development of stable and enduring socio-economic conditions underpin the alleviation of poverty and a more equitable distribution of decision-making, both of which are necessary preconditions for food security. We must recognize that women are the primary agricultural producers in most developing countries and that improving access to land and financial resources for women is an essential component of efforts to achieve and enhance human security.

Enhanced use of participatory research methods: Linking food and human security suggests communities and households should be the departure point for understanding food insecurity. This, in turn, demands that future research engage local communities to a greater extent than has been the case. Participatory research methods, based upon a sharing of research responsibilities between the community and the researcher, provide an opportunity for better understanding the dynamics amongst food, environmental, social, political, and economic systems in a local context.

Greater emphasis on urban food security is required: In the next 20 years more than 90% of urban growth is expected to occur in the developing world; consequently urban food distribution systems will be under increasing stress. Currently, there is a strong reliance on local vendors and food distribution systems regularly break down. Food security amongst rural poor will continue to be a major problem, but there is an urgent need to make the improvement of urban food supply and distribution systems a policy priority.

A better understanding of differential vulnerability and coping strategies is required: While the poor are at greatest risk, not all poor people are equally vulnerable to hunger and food insecurity. There is an urgent need to gain a better understanding of how environmental, social, economic, and political forces combine at the local-level to either enhance or reduce coping capacity, and much can be learned from existing ways to cope with periodic food shortages.

Strengthen agricultural research in developing countries: Advanced agricultural technologies will undoubtedly play a major role in increasing total food production, but research aimed at improving productivity on small-scale farms is equally as important in improving food security amongst many rural people in developing countries. When rural farmers are involved in developing and introducing new technologies, adoption rates by other farmers increase. The role and position women have in agricultural production and food preparation must be fully recognized, and, if it is their choice, women must be integrated fully into agricultural research.

Promote conservation of land and water resources: Competition between agricultural and urban-based activities for land and water resources is expected to increase. Policies and programs to ensure agriculture retains access to these resources are becoming increasingly important. Rehabilitation of degraded land and water resources is often technically possible, but not economically feasible. More efficient resource use, especially reducing water losses in irrigation systems, will augment agricultural production without drawing more heavily on the resource base.

Useful references

Brklacich, M. & Leybourne, S., 1999. Food Security Concepts. In Lonergan, S.L. (ed.) 1999. Environmental Change, Adaptation and Human Security Dordrecht: Kluwer (forthcoming).

Brown, Lester, 1999. Feeding Nine Billion. In World Watch Institute 1999 State of the World 1999, (pp. 113-132). New York: W. W. Norton.

Delisle, H. & Shaw, D. J., 1998. The Quest for Food Security in the 21st Century. Special Issue of the Canadian Journal of Development Studies, Volume XIX, 1998, Ottawa.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 1998. The State of Food and Agriculture 1998. Rome: FAO Agriculture Series No. 31.

Hulse, Joseph H., 1995. Science, Agriculture, and Food Security. Ottawa: NRC Research Press.

Marchione, T., 1996. The Right to Food in the Post-Cold War Era. Food Policy 21, 83-102.

Maxwell, S., 1996. Food security: A Post-modern Perspective. Food Policy 21, 155-170.

Mitchell, D. O., Ingco, M. D., & Duncan, R. C., 1997. The World Food Outlook. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 1998. The Future of Food: Long Term Prospects for the Agri-food Sector. Paris: OECD.

Uvin, P., 1994. The International Organisation of Hunger. New York: Kegan Paul International.

Mike Brklacich and Shona Leybourne

Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Canada

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